A war this way comes …
As of writing, US is actively poking the Russian bear. Japan and South korea just expanded export restrictions to Russia and US levied sanctions against another Russian gas project. This makes it very clear US is not willing to negotiate in the russia — ukraine war, which is ofcourse a proxy war between russia and US.
Its troubling to see especially considering the developments 2000km from Ukraine. Another war but where Israel’s bibi is on an insatiable blood thirst. Having killed more than 20,000 Palestinians , bibi doesn’t look close to relenting.
This aggression is putting to hell all normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. And the muslim world in general. Supported by the fact that yet another group being bullied by a goliath is trying to fight back, namely Houthis of Yemen. Houthis have choked the red sea and one of the most important trade routes in the world with its barrage of missiles targeting ships in the area.
US is now between a hard and a rock place wrt Yemen. Having urged Israel to pursue peace and being blatantly refused. US is wary of attacking the Houthis in Yemen which is the Saudis backyard. US risks taking sides in the Israel Palestine conflict and alienating the whole muslim world in one sweep.
But this third aspect of the war offers some hope. Maybe US can urge Saudis to silence the Houthis and maybe all this can go away? This too is looking less likely as Saudi plays both ways with irreconcilable nemesis US and Iran. US has been backing off the Middle east for some years now, for eg military troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. Becoming self sufficient for their own oil needs by producing it at home and also for Europe.
Saudi has been watching this and has been coming close to China, Russia and noticeably Iran. Saudi cannot trust US after US freezed Russian reserves. It needs an alternative if it wants to end its reliance on oil and move to a more balanced economy. That means making the middle east more peaceful hence deals with Iran and Israel.
Update 1: US seems to be expanding its hold on south china sea by reviving a ww2 base near japan. Backing philippines in recent skirmish with china in the region. But looks to be in a tough place in other places like Ukraine, where foreign aid is dependent on US loosening its sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela. Credits: Mexico’s president and migration. Thus looking weak globally.
Will the Saudi risk jeopardising its relations with not only Russia, China but all its muslim neighbours by silencing the Houthis as it has been for more than a decade now? Maybe. But it feels like the pieces are being laid one after the another. This article hasn’t mentioned other possible crisis in Africa’s Sudan and Ethiopia which are next to the red sea. Or the China Taiwan crisis that has some fuel behind it. Its a process of push and pull, anyone backing down will risk more aggression from the other side. Any territory expansion on either side will make more territory expansion from that very side even more tempting and probable. Nevertheless , let us pray for world peace for one and for all.
